Your Answer to Market Volatility Could be Right in Your Wallet

Keeping cash on hand can help you mentally withstand periods of increased market volatility

(Originally published on ValueWalk March 10, 2020)

Volatile markets can be scary. Even for investors who understand that long-term investing is the most proven way to earn returns, watching a sea of red engulf your portfolio can be nerve-wracking. Maintaining the mental stamina required to stay the course and not sell requires fortitude.

With cases related to the novel coronavirus cropping up all over the world, markets have been in panic mode. No one knows what the economic impact will be of the virus or the widespread quarantines that many expect will shut down more cities like Hong Kong and Tokyo.

The Importance Of Maintaining A Cash Cushion

The stock and bond markets can be volatile; that’s a fact of life. No one can control or predict where markets will go or when they will go there. Over the course of an investor’s lifetime, stocks will go up and down, often for reasons unrelated to company fundamentals. That’s why it’s crucial to maintain a cash cushion.

A cash cushion is different from an emergency fund, which you should also have. An emergency or rainy-day fund segregates a year’s worth of living expenses in a savings account (ideally a high-yielding one). This fund is designed for true emergencies: losing your job, unexpected medical bills, or a surprise house move or repair. It’s savings, not investments, because it should be in completely liquid cash so that it’s easy to access rapidly if you need it.

A cash cushion is the next step in your financial fortress and serves two purposes. First, it’s a psychological buffer against worrying about losing money in a market downturn. When the market becomes volatile, you can feel comfortable ignoring those gyrations because you know you have enough cash in the bank. It also allows you to avoid selling at the wrong time—when everyone else is selling. While others are panicking, you can stay invested, which historically has been the smart long-term strategy.

Second, a cash cushion functions as “dry powder.” You can use it to buy more of positions you believe in during a downturn—or keep it waiting until you see value in buying more. In markets like these, having the ability to buy when you feel an investment is cheap can be the difference between strong long-term performance and a lagging portfolio. While few investors can time the market, dollar-cost-averaging has proven to be an effective strategy. Having enough cash on hand to stick with that strategy and keep buying on a pre-determined periodic basis, even while others are selling, can lead to better returns over time.

Keep Pace With Inflation

If cash can be such a helpful asset to have, why don’t more people follow this strategy? The trouble with cash as an asset class is that it drags down your portfolio’s overall returns. Typically, cash barely keeps pace with inflation—and often lags it. The national average interest rate on a savings account in the U.S. is ten basis points, or 0.10%. That’s essentially zero, and far below inflation. This means that for most people holding cash, they lose purchasing power each and every year.

To make your cash more competitive and keep pace with inflation, the most logical place to keep it, by far, is in a high-yielding online bank savings account. Since online banks don’t have branches, their costs are lower, allowing them to pass some of these savings along to their customers in the form of higher interest rates. Banks that are FDIC-insured are safe options for holding cash since as long as you keep your balances below the FDIC insurance limits at each bank, your deposits are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. From there, you want to make sure you’re tracking which of these banks will offer the highest yield on your cash.

Rates change frequently, so you’ll want to monitor your online savings banks closely to make sure you’re always getting the best rate. Solutions like MaxMyInterest.com track changes in rates and can help you earn more on your cash automatically.

The Coronavirus Panic

If you’ve been earning a decent yield on your cash, and you have enough both for an emergency fund and a cash cushion, you’re in a good situation when a natural disaster like the new coronavirus causes markets to fall. You’ll be able to avoid selling your stocks in a panic because you know you have cash available to meet your expenses. It’s rarely a good idea to join the hysteria when other investors are rushing to get out of stocks, and cash will give you the discipline to avoid selling in a panic. You’ll also be free to buy more shares as the market goes down. Remaining invested and adding to positions methodically has proven to be a time-tested way to generate better returns on your portfolio over the long term.

Everyone holds cash somewhere—it’s the one asset class every investor and household has in common. How you manage your cash can make a big difference in times of volatile markets.

The Role of Cash in Investor Portfolios

There’s global-volatility-roller-coasternothing like a little reprise of global market volatility to remind us that stocks don’t always go up.  That’s no reason to panic, of course, but sometimes it’s good to take a moment to reflect on portfolio theory and appreciate why most advisors don’t advocate a 100% allocation to equities.

Here at Max, we are not financial advisors, nor do we offer financial advice. Our goal is simply to help individual investors earn as much as possible on whatever portion of their portfolio that they — or their advisors — have chosen to hold in cash, while keeping it safe.  Today, our members are earning approximately 1.00% yield on their liquid cash, with FDIC insurance of up to $5 million per couple.  This works out to roughly 10x more interest income than paid in most savings or brokerage accounts and 20x more than most money market funds (which, it’s worth noting, are not insured.)

According to the most recent Capgemini/RBC Wealth Management World Wealth Report, 4.7 million high net worth households in North America — defined as those with more than $1 million of investable assets beyond their primary residence — are holding a collective $3.8 trillion dollars in cash & cash equivalents.  That works out to 23.7% of their portfolios.  Yet most financial advisors think that their clients are holding closer to 10% of their portfolios in cash. What accounts for the difference?  It seems as if Americans are more conservative than their financial advisors would seem to believe or advise.  They must be holding cash in other pockets — bank accounts, CDs, and money market funds outside the view of their advisors.

Why so much cash? There are several reasons. Some have to do with timing differences. A law firm partner might, for instance, receive monthly draws from the partnership, but pay estimated taxes quarterly. This results in a build up of cash that must be set aside to pay taxes. But if that cash is sitting in a regular checking or savings or brokerage account, it is likely dramatically under-earning its potential. Other households may be saving for a major purchase, such as a first or second home, or reserving funds against commitments made to invest in private equity funds. Again, cash set aside earning next to nothing creates a drag on the portfolio and represents a lost opportunity to earn on those funds.

Other investors are more strategic about their cash allocation. For some, it’s a hedge (amidst market volatility, where the values of stocks and bonds gyrate, it’s nice to have the comfort of an asset class that acts as a store of value.) For others, cash is an even more strategic asset – a form of dry powder, ready to be deployed when market opportunities present themselves.

For all the talk of cash being a zero return asset class, excess cash in a portfolio can also facilitate outsized gains. Looking back on the financial crisis of 2008-2009, an investor with cash on the sidelines, who was able to bravely dip a toe into the market while others were fearful, could have tripled her money simply by buying the S&P 500. Had that same investor been fully invested, she would have missed one of the greatest investment opportunities of our lifetimes. This past week’s market volatility again reminds us that having cash at the ready can mean the difference between fretting over falling share prices vs. capitalizing on opportunity.

Financial advisors should pay close attention to these statistics. Astute advisors know that they can deliver better financial advice if they have a truer picture of their clients’ assets, objectives, and risk tolerance. Bringing more of a client’s cash into view can help inform this discussion and lead to better investment outcomes. MaxMyInterest.com is one such tool that can be deployed to generate better returns for clients, both directly by way of higher yield, and indirectly, by assembling a pool of cash that’s ready to be deployed when volatility emerges.